WASHINGTON — Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits were much lower than forecast in the September 28 week, up by a mere 1,000 to 308,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Expectations for this week's report was for a claims level of 315,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previously reported 305,000 level in the September 21 week. The initial claims level in that week was revised slightly higher to 307,000.
The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average dropped for the fifth straight week, down 3,750 to 305,000, the lowest level since the week of May 26, 2007 (304,250).
A Labor Department analyst said that there was nothing unusual in the state data, with the unadjusted claims level "relatively stable." He did note that the 104,000 jump in continuing claims was "largely reflected in California catching up with the back-dated claims related to their computer conversion."
Questioned about what impact the ongoing government shutdown will have on claims data, the analyst noted that claims filed by federal employees are not a component of the seasonally adjusted claims data, "so it would not be reflected in the headline seasonally adjusted number."
It all depends on who is the source of their wages, he said, so contractors would be counted in the state claims data.
Furloughed federal civilian employees are eligible to file for claims immediately, but the initial claims data for that group in the report lags by a week. So for the Sept. 21 week, initial claims fell by 102 to 1,032.
On the unadjusted front, the Labor analyst said seasonal adjustment factors had expected a 1.6% drop in unadjusted claims, around 3,991, in the Sept. 28 week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 1.2%, or 3,018, to 252,092. That level is below the 301,054 level reported in the comparable week a year ago.
The state data indicated that unadjusted initial claims increased in 24 states and declined in 39 states, with no states unchanged. The District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands are included in this data.
As mentioned earlier, the level of continuing claims rose by 104,000 to 2.925 million after seasonal adjustment in the September 21 week.
The level of unadjusted continuing claims increased 55,408 to 2,518,557, compared to 2,821,233 level the comparable week a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ticked up to 2.3% in the Sept. 21 week, below the seasonally adjusted 2.6% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.
The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.
The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims jumped 121,501 to 1,470,027 in the September 14 week.
The Labor Department reported that a total of 4,002,455 persons claimed unemployment benefits in the September 14 week, an increase of 81,089 from the previous week, and still well below the 5,088,619 persons in the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally adjusted, and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new veterans claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state additional benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.
Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See
