The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April slipped to negative 1.17 from a revised negative 0.98 reading in March, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported yesterday. Meanwhile, the three-month moving average decreased to negative 1.24 in April, after March’s number was revised to negative 1.05 from negative 0.86.

The April CFNAI-MA3 reading was the lowest since the 2001 recession, and the fifth month below negative 0.70, indicating “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun,” the Fed said.

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