Lynne Funk

While particpants expect some pressure in the near-term with more than $16 billion on tap, they also say the current yield and ratio levels offer investors opportunity.

Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager, managing directors and co-heads at TD Securities Automated trading division, discuss how automation and electronic trading are creating more opportunities and better outcomes for municipal market participants, including making muni bonds more accessible to a broader range of investors.

"For each May dating to 2021, the average 30-year MMD was 2.74% — or 122 basis points below the current yield," FHN Financial's Kim Olsan said. "The recent adjustment offers better investor value."

"In terms of credit quality, high-yield funds proved resilient" while investment-grade funds saw outflows of $673 million, noted J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot in a market note.

James Morris of Investortools joins the podcast to discuss the significant impact of electronic trading and automation on the municipal finance sector, revealing insights into improved efficiencies, trading workflows, and the evolving role of bond traders.

"We remain cautious with respect to duration given the uncertain macro and geopolitical environment though optically, yields seem attractive in the current range," said Wells Fargo's Vikram Rai.

A supply surge hits the market as The Bond Buyer 30-day visible bond volume ticks in at $17.67 billion, $10 billion of which will come the first full week of May, just as macroeconomic data moves all markets to rally.

"Bond market investors are all wishing that April was behind us as they are anxious to hear the Fed's statement at its next FOMC meeting," noted BofA Global Research. "The statement should be no surprise as the market consensus has converged to 'higher for longer' rates.

A combination of a "stronger-than-expected economy, higher Treasury rates, robust supply, and rich valuations resulting in choppy markets" have made the trading environment in H124 "quite difficult," according to Barclays.

Barclays' Mikhail Foux talks shifting demand, BABs refundings, election effects and what it means for the asset class in a volatile market.

In a week marked by inflation and jobs data that made clearer the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates nearly as much or as many times as some had expected even a week ago, Friday's headlines further complicated the landscape for investors and munis have had little choice but to go along for the ride.

As another economic indicator pushed investors closer toward the assumption that rate cuts are farther away, the relationship between munis, USTs and the vast amount of capital sitting on the sidelines becomes more challenging to navigate, particularly ahead of the tax-filing deadline and growing new-issue calendar.

LSEG Lipper reported fund inflows of $63.8 million for the week ending Wednesday following $300.5 million of inflows the prior week. High-yield saw its 11th consecutive week of inflows at $180.4 million, down from $278.6 million the week prior.

Despite several larger deals entering the primary, the vast amount of cash on hand has not allowed munis to cheapen amid UST volatility and ultra-rich ratios

"While rate volatility returned this week, should the market return to range-bound levels for a protracted period of time, investors might want to add exposure to sectors that provide the most value and have underperformed thus far," Barclays said. 

The market is being led more by supply and demand than ratios or even rates. As ratios sit at extremely tight levels, there are buyers engaging at these levels, but large amounts of cash continue to sit on the sidelines.

Investor demands and lower account minimums have grown separately managed accounts across fixed-income markets, particularly in munis. Russell Feldman, CEO and co-founder of IMTC, discusses this evolution and how technology has contributed to changing market dynamics.

Municipals look poised to close out February a touch in the black following a more constructive tone Thursday after being in a 'holding pattern' for much of the past two weeks.

The week ahead boasts some big-name issuers and rare credits, which should provide interesting price discovery. The new-issue calendar totals $6.08 billion, with a larger competitive calendar coming in at $2.4 billion.

"With supply still low, and fund outflows just marginal, it is not clear what would substantially cheapen the market, and we could get stuck in the current range for some time time," Barclays strategists said.