Gary Siegel

This week will be all about the secondary market given that the majority of issuance was priced earlier in the month while Dec. 1 coupon payments should make secondary offerings look attractive.

A large new-issue calendar began pricing in the negotiated and competitive markets, with a few deals bumped off the day-to-day calendar.

Outside influence "beyond the control of the muni bond market" is needed to derail the recent positive momentum.

Investors put nearly $2 billion into municipal bond mutual funds for the most recent week with high-yield reversing a downward course to hit $1.2 billion following just $1 million a week prior.

The Investment Company Institute reported $657 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds while ETFs saw $828 million of inflows, a massive increase over the $43 million reported a week prior.

Triple-A benchmarks have fallen double digits since Nov. 1, with the largest moves out long. California, the District of Columbia, Wisconsin and other issuers part of a $6 billion new-issue calendar priced.

Municipals were quiet on Monday following Friday's rally and ahead of the $9.6 billion estimated to be priced early in the week before the Veterans Day holiday close Thursday. Connecticut priced for retail.

The long end of the municipal curve rallied under a backdrop of stronger-than-expected October jobs data and upward revesions to the prior two months ahead of the arrival of $9.6 billion next week.

For 35 weeks in a row, investors have put cash into municipal bond funds as Refinitiv Lipper reported $603 million of inflows while high-yield funds eked out a gain of slightly more than $1 million.

After the FOMC made taper official, high-grade benchmark yields ended the day one to three basis points better while USTs ended the day higher after an up-and-down trading session that moved the 30-year back above 2%.

Most bond issues appear to be approved, but many were rejected.

The FOMC will likely take the opportunity to profess its reliance on data to decide liftoff and reiterate the threshold for a rate hike remains higher than for taper.

Though monetary policy has been in the forefront, at mid-month the tone changed with global inflation outlooks and federal infrastructure and social package in flux.

A lighter, $5 billion calendar, heavy on healthcare, kicks off November. Most participants agree volatility in U.S. Treasuries will be a leading factor for municipal market performance. Uncertainty in Washington also isn't helping the asset class.

Amid a flattening municipal yield curve and inversion of the Treasury market, new issues fared better than the secondary on Thursday as participants prepared for month end.

ICI reported the lowest inflows since outflows in March, while exchanged-traded funds saw an uptick.

As of now, returns for the month will very likely end in the red. The Bloomberg U.S. Municipal Index is at -0.40% for the month and +0.39% for the year.

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, discusses the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, inflation, what taper will mean, when the Fed might decide to lift off, and possible leadership changes. Gary Siegel hosts. (30 minutes)

Despite a short-end U.S. Treasury rally, municipals face pressure on the one- and two-year as participants look to month-end positioning.

Municipal bond mutual fund inflows fell to $177 million while high-yield is back to outflows, both signaling selling may be moving the market toward another larger correction.