WASHINGTON — The U.S. September employment report was decent but suggests a lower growth plain than in spring — a key factor is that this was worse than expectations but probably meets the criteria for “improvement” in the labor market.
To be sure, the September employment report shows weakening. September jobs posted a “mere” 142,000 gain and the net revision to August-July totaled a 59,000 decline, undershooting expectations. In part the difference in these new estimates from expectations might reflect better sampling by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Gains in payrolls have averaged 167,000 over the last three months, slower than the trailing 12-month average of 229,000 jobs added.
The good news in the report surrounds unemployment: the unemployment rate is steady at 5.1% albeit because labor force participation was down 0.2 point to 62.4%. This stalling with poor background metrics is not pretty but still shows some improvement. For example, the U-6 unemployment rate was down 0.3 point to 10.0% and overall unemployment is at a low level only seen infrequently in the last 50 years.
Hours and earning slipped. Along with a drop in manufacturing payrolls, this suggests lower production and income.
Payrolls composition: mining fell 12,000, manufacturing slid 9,000, construction rose 8,000, retail increased 23,700, finance flat, healthcare grew 36,400, government gained 24,000 (state education rose 13,600 but local education flat).
Unadjusted jobs rose 558,000, less than usual. That came despite a 916,000 surge in NSA local education jobs, illustrating the weakness was elsewhere.
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