WASHINGTON — The U.S. November housing data show a rebound in multi-family construction but are essentially in a steady state overall.
November housing starts fell 1.6% to 1.028 million and permits fell 5.2% to 1.035 million, both disappointing and below expectations. However, the two series are about in balance, with the implication that housing will not move much ahead.
The starts drop centered in single families, which declined 5.4%, with starts in the South and West regions falling. The 5-plus unit category posted a 7.6% increase in a rebound from a large decline in October.
Erratic moves in large projects resulted in a permits drop centered in multi-units at a 11.1% decline. Single-family permits were down a mere 1.2%. Permits are down 0.2% over the year, suggesting there will not be a surge ahead and that growth is slowing in housing.
Only single-family permits in the Northeast are showing any strength -- at a 7.8% gain, they supported the entire series.
Completions fell 6.4% to 863,000 in November, also disappointing. These are still rising over the year, illustrating housing momentum.
For October-November, the average for starts is only slightly above the 1.0 million average pace in Q3. This means that housing still is contributing to real GDP growth, though barely.
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