Inventory correction has been completed and manufacturing, housing and consumer spending all look to trend weaker in the near future, leading Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Richard Fisher to expect gross domestic product growth under 3% for a “prolonged period.”
“Against this background, recent relatively weak data indicating slower manufacturing growth, a dyspeptic housing sector and continuing consumer anxiety point to a slightly weaker national outlook, with growth from the first quarter onward likely to fall below 3%,” Fisher told the Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commerce, according to prepared remarks released by the Fed.
A slow labor market recovery, with better household spending, will be limited to “entrepreneurial hot spots like Texas,” he said.
“But, on net, I fear the nation’s economy will be sailing forward at suboptimal speed, despite the fact that the cost of borrowing is low, equity markets have shown resilience, and liquidity is plentiful on corporate balance sheets and in the form of excess reserves in the banking system,” Fisher said.
