Officials: Puerto Rico's Downturn to Last Four Years; GDB Sets Webcast

Puerto Rico officials yesterday announced the island's recession will likely span four years, surpassing its two-year economic downturn in the early 1980s.

The announcement comes as the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico, the commwealth's fiscal agent, is set to hold a Webcast today at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time at www.vcall.com/conferences/event.asp?ID=140801.

GDB president Carlos Garcia will discuss the administration's plans to address the island's economic challenges, including an estimated $3.2 billion deficit in the current fiscal 2009 budget, rising unemployment, and the prolonged recession.

Puerto Rico's Planning Board yesterday released its evaluation of the local economy. The board's designated president, Hector Vargas, said the commonwealth's recession will continue through fiscal 2010. As its economy has been in a downturn since fiscal 2007, officials anticipate the current recession to last a total of four consecutive years.

In addition, the board revised earlier economic projections made by the prior administration. Vargas and his team expect growth in economy to decline by 3.4% in fiscal 2009, which ends June 30. That projection differs from an earlier Planning Board estimate made under former Gov. Acevedo Vila's administration that pegged the local economy to grow by 2.1% in fiscal 2009. Vargas announced Puerto Rico's economy will also contract in fiscal 2010 by an estimated 2%.

In a prepared statement, Vargas said negative numbers in employment, construction permits, sales of cement, and revenue collections contributed to fiscal 2009's revised economic outlook.

In fiscal 2008 and 2007, the island experienced negative economic growth of 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.

The Planning Board reviews and analyzes the commonwealth's fiscal health and outlook and helps craft long-term economic goals. Gov. Luis Fortuño nominated Vargas to head the board in mid-November, shortly after he beat Acevedo Vila in the general election.

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