Supply starved muni market to see paltry $3.5B slate next week

Bond yields at a glance

MBIS benchmark (~AA)

MBIS AAA

MMD AAA

U.S. Treasuries

10 year

2.653

2.577

2.42

2.84

30 year

3.101

3.017

2.97

3.14

MBIS indices are updated hourly on the Bond Buyer Data Workstation.

Municipal bond buyers looking for new deals will again have to be satisfied with a smaller-than-average calendar for next week as bond yields remain volatile. After 2017's end of the year rush to market ahead of tax law changes, analysts expected the first quarter of the year would see lower than average volume .

Ipreo estimates volume next week at $3.5 billion, comprised of $2.7 billion of negotiated deals and $824 million of competitive sales.

BB-021218-MUN

Over the past week, muni yields have risen and fallen in response to gyrations in the Treasury and equities markets and were finishing up little changed.

The MBIS non-callable 5% GO 10-year muni benchmark yield was at 2.653% on Friday from the final read of 2.670% last Friday, according to Municipal Bond Information Services. The MBIS 30-year benchmark muni yield was at 3.101% from 3.087% last Frday.

The MBIS benchmark index is updated hourly on the Bond Buyer Data Workstation.

Primary market
Dominating next week’s slate is the Pennsylvania Commonwealth Financing Authority’s $1.39 billion of tobacco master settlement payment revenue bonds.

Jefferies is expected to price the bonds on Tuesday.

The deal is rated A1 by Moody’s Investors Service A by S&P Global Ratings and A-plus by Fitch Ratings.

Also on tap is a taxable corporate CUSIP deal from Community Health Network Inc. in Indiana. Wells Fargo Securities is expected to price the $202 million of Series 2018 bonds as a 2058 bullet on Tuesday.

The deal is rated A2 by Moody’s and A by S&P.

Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply at $4.33B
The Bond Buyer's 30-day visible supply calendar increased $38.4 million to $4.33 billion on Friday. The total is comprised of $1.35 billion of competitive sales and $2.98 billion of negotiated deals.

Previous session's activity
On Thursday, the 10-year muni-to-Treasury ratio was calculated at 84.8% compared with 84.0% on Wednesday, while the 30-year muni-to-Treasury ratio stood at 94.5% versus 94.3%, according to MMD.

The Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board reported 41,600 trades on Thursday on volume of $12.45 billion. California, Texas and New York were the three states with the most trades, with the Golden State taking 16.925% of the market, the Empire State taking 11.102% and the Lone Star State taking 10.309%.

Week's actively traded issues
Some of the most actively traded bonds by type in the week ended Feb. 9 were from New York, Georgia and Illinois issuers, according to Markit.

In the GO bond sector, the New York City zeroes of 2042 traded 28 times. In the revenue bond sector, the Main Street Natural Gas Inc. of Ga.’s 4.125s of 2045 traded 25 times. And in the taxable bond sector, the Illinois 5.1s of 2033 traded 17 times.

Week's actively quoted issues
California and New Jersey names were among the most actively quoted bonds in the week ended Feb. 9, according to Markit.

On the bid side, New Jersey Economic Development Authority taxable 7.425s of 2029 were quoted by 36 unique dealers. On the ask side, the California taxable 7.5s of 2034 were quoted by 110 dealers. And among two-sided quotes, the California taxable 7.5s of 2034 were quoted by 24 unique dealers.

Lipper: Muni bond funds saw inflows
Investors in municipal bond funds again put cash into the funds in the latest week, according to Lipper data released on Thursday.

The weekly reporters saw $674.908 million of inflows in the week of Feb. 7, after inflows of $235.926 million in the previous week.

BB-020918-LIPPERnew

Exchange traded funds reported inflows of $53.734 million, after outflows of $16.893 million in the previous week. Ex-ETFs, muni funds saw $621.174 million of inflows, after inflows of $252.819 million in the previous week.

The four-week moving average was positive at $717.654 million, after being in the green at $815.115 million in the previous week. A moving average is an analytical tool used to smooth out price changes by filtering out fluctuations.

Long-term muni bond funds had inflows of $36.688 million in the latest week after inflows of $170.114 million in the previous week. Intermediate-term funds had inflows of $391.078 million after inflows of $264.852 million in the prior week. National funds had inflows of $686.135 million after inflows of $347.233 million in the previous week. High-yield muni funds reported outflows of $572.375 million in the latest week, after outflows of $143.414 million the previous week.

Data appearing in this article from Municipal Bond Information Services, including the MBIS municipal bond index, is available on The Bond Buyer Data Workstation. Click here for a brief tour of the Workstation, or contact Vanessa Kim at 212-803-8474 for more information.

For reprint and licensing requests for this article, click here.
Primary bond market Secondary bond market Municipal bond funds State of California State of Texas State of New York New Jersey Economic Development Authority City of New York, NY
MORE FROM BOND BUYER