The U.S. economy is in recession and it will be more than just a “garden variety” downturn, with the scope and timing depending on how well the financial markets rebound, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Sandra Pianalto.

“Collectively, the information I have been looking at tells me that the economy is now in a recession, although the National Bureau of Economic Research, the referee in such matters, has yet to call one,” Pianalto told the City Club of Cleveland Friday, according to a prepared text of her remarks released by the Fed.

“Nationally, employment has been declining all year, and in last week’s employment report we saw the characteristic monthly employment losses that are associated with a recession,” she said. “Manufacturing output has been following a similar course. And you won’t be surprised to learn that retailers are posting dismal sales figures — some of the lowest seen in decades. In fact, just this morning, the Commerce Department reported the worst retail sales figures in 40 years.”

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