Jobless claims drop below expected level in June 16 week

WASHINGTON — Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 218,000 in the June 16 employment survey week, below the 220,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey following an upward revision to claims in the previous week, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed.

Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits

The level of initial claims is down 5,000 from the 223,000 level in May 20 employment survey week, a net positive for June payrolls and an indication of a tight labor market.

The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 4,000 to 221,000 in the June 16 week. The average was at a level of 213,500 in the May 12 employment survey week, so the comparison is less favorable than for the headline number. However, the May 12 week average included a string of decades-low levels.

If the number of headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week average would fall by 1,250 as the 223,000 level in the May 26 week rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago level.

Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 3.9%, or 8,417, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims fell by 11,706 (5.4%) to 205,583. The current week's level was well below the 228,883 level in the comparable week a year ago.

Claims were estimated for Maine only. The Labor Department has recently removed its mention of data collection issues in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which had been in the report since the hurricanes in the fall.

The level of continuing claims rose by 22,000 to 1.723 million in the June 9 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 25,680 to 1.585 million, significantly below the 1.795 million level seen in the comparable week last year.

The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell by 4,750 to 1.723 million, again the lowest point since the Dec. 8, 1973, week.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in the June 9 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier and an indication of how low the level of insured unemployment stands.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See www.marketnews.com.
Economic indicators Jobless claims
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