WASHINGTON - The U.S. January trade balance posted a better-than-expected $37.3 billion deficit as imports fell in a probably temporary adjustment. As the world economy recovers, markets should brace for deeper U.S. trade gaps ahead.
Imports fell $3.1 billion, more than the $500 million dip in exports, narrowing the trade gap.
The January import drop reflected crude oil imports down $2.3 billion on a drop in volume. Prices were steady and are rising into the spring, thus suggesting oil import costs could rise in future.
Also in imports was a $1.5 billion drop in autos, a $600 million decrease in computers, a $130 million decline in civilian aircraft, and drops in consumer goods. The first might relate to slack demand for foreign cars as Toyota's sales fell on recall publicity.
Exports saw a $500 million fall for civilian aircraft and a $500 million drop for autos against gains in many other areas.
The unadjusted trade balance data by country included: China an $18.3 billion deficit against an $18.1 billion deficit in December, Japan a $3.3 billion shortfall (lowest since May 2009) against a $4.6 billion shortage, OPEC a $7.2 billion deficit against a $6.8 billion shortfall, and Canada a $3.9 billion deficit (highest since Oct 2008) against a $3 billion shortage.
On a GDP basis the real trade balance in January was little changed from its Q4 average. This suggests so far that Q1 trade will be a neutral in the GDP accounts.
The Commerce Department said annual trade revisions, due on June 10, will revise data back to 2007 and will reclassify some services related to foreign military sales as goods. Commerce also revised low value estimates for goods not meeting the filing exemptions, effective with the January data.
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