Puerto Rico Economic Activity Yo-Yoed in January and February

Puerto Rico's economic activity index fell 0.4 % in January then rose 0.5% in February.

February's value of 124.2 was higher than December's value of 124.0. Year-over-year, the February economic activity index has fallen 1.6%.

The Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico reported the index values on Wednesday. In its release covering January 2015, the GDB also revised its index results going back 21 months.

Each March the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a revision to its payroll employment statistics going back 21 months. These statistics are from its survey of establishments about their employment levels.

This March the bureau cut the figure for the average total payroll employment in calendar 2014 by 17,300 from its previous estimates.

The establishment employment survey is one of four measures in the GDB's economic activity index. The bureau's downward revision led the GDB to lower index values for the last 21 months.

For example, in the previous edition of the economic activity index, its average value in the second half of 2014 was down 1.5% year-over-year from its average value in the second half of 2013. In the revised version the decline is 2.7%.

In recent months the bureau's establishment employment survey has been showing job losses while its household survey has been showing job gains. The household survey shows that Puerto Rico employment has gone up for five consecutive months on a month-to-month basis.

From February 2015 to February 2015, the establishment survey shows a 1.4% decline in Puerto Rico employment while the household survey shows a 1.1% increase.

The GDB's release for the January economic activity index figures also shows that the index's annual change figures have been more pessimistic than the real gross national product growth for the fiscal years from 2000 to 2013.

The GNP level hasn't yet been released for calendar or fiscal year 2014. The GDB's release didn't include GNP changes prior to 2000.

From fiscal 2007 to 2013 the average annual economic activity index change was a 2.38% decline. In the same years the average annual real GNP change was a 1.71% decline.

The index showed contractions in fiscal 2011 and 2013 and an expansion in 2012. The real GNP figure showed a contraction in 2011 and increases in 2012 and 2013.

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