New York City's budget forecast in the coming years is "sound," but still faces risks that could alter estimates, according to a new report from the Independent Budget Office.
The IBO estimates the city will end its current fiscal year with a $1.8 million surplus, $182 million more than Mayor Bill de Blasio projected, according to the 57-page report released Friday afternoon. A $1.3 billion surplus is projected by the IBO for 2016 with $300 million annually then available from 2017 to 2019. The de Blasio administration has said shortfalls ranging from $1 billion to $2.1 billion are expected from 2017 through 2019, but the IBO estimates factor in higher revenue projections including a 6.5% increase in property taxes from 2015 to 2016.
"Based on our projections under the terms of the Mayor's financial plan, New York City's budget outlook for the next few years is sound," said IBO Director Ronnie Lowenstein. "But as with any forecast, there are risks that can upend your estimates."
The IBO report notes that one risk that could hamper the Big Apple's financial plans are the potential for a drop in international tourism due to the growth of the dollar and struggling economies around the globe. Another risk that adds "uncertainty" to New York's economic growth is how Wall Street firms adjust to regulatory and market changes that have raised costs.
The IBO said it anticipates New York will add more than 96,000 jobs this year and 80,000 in 2016. Over the five years of the city's financial plan, the IBO forecasts the largest shares of new jobs will come from education and health care services (28.5%), professional and business services (26.7%), and leisure and hospitality (14.6%).
Mayor de Blasio proposed a $77.1 billion budget in February that the city council has until July 1 to ratify.
