California Revenue Projections Missed Mark for First Half

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LOS ANGELES — California revenues for December missed projections by $1.87 billion, coming in 12.7% less than anticipated in the state's 2016-17 budget, according to the state controller's office.

December's numbers indicate the fiscal restraint in Gov. Jerry Brown's 2017-18 budget proposal is wise, said Controller Betty Yee in her report released hours after the governor's budget address.

For the first half of the fiscal year that began in July, total revenues of $51.72 billion are $1.66 billion, or 3.1%, below budget estimates.

"Given the state's revenue shortfall and an inevitable future economic downturn, coupled with unpredictable federal funding under the new president, Gov. Brown is right to be cautious," Yee said.

December revenues came in at $12.85 billion.

The "big three" sources of California general fund dollars—personal income taxes, corporation taxes, and retail sales and use taxes—all missed the monthly mark and are now behind fiscal year-to-date estimates.

Personal income tax receipts of $8.58 billion fell short of budget projections by $1.38 billion, or 13.%—roughly the same percentage by which November PIT receipts topped estimates. Six months into the fiscal year, California has collected total PIT receipts of $34.58 billion, missing estimates by $824.1 million, or 2.3%.

Corporation tax receipts of $1.77 billion for December were $29.4 million lower than expected. Fiscal year-to-date corporation tax receipts of $3.23 billion are $347.7 million below projections in the 2016-17 Budget Act—a shortfall of 9.7%.

Retail sales and use tax receipts of $2.14 billion for December missed expectations by $372.1 million, or 14.8%. For the fiscal year-to-date, sales tax receipts of $12.06 billion are $610.4 million below estimates, or 4.8%.

The state ended December with unused borrowable resources of $20.49 billion, which was $2.01 billion less than predicted in the 2016-17 Budget Act. Outstanding loans of $17.75 billion were $3.98 billion higher than projected. This loan balance consists of borrowing from the state's internal special funds.

 

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