California Revenue Projections Fall Short for Second Month

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LOS ANGELES — California revenues missed expectations for the second month in a row, according to a monthly report produced by State Controller Betty Yee.

May state revenues fell short of projections in Gov. Jerry Brown's revised budget proposal by $154.3 million, weighed down by corporation tax refunds far higher than expected, according to Yee's cash report, released Friday.

"The state's other major taxes came close to or exceeded estimates in May, so we should not jump to conclusions about a downturn," Yee said in a release. "However, it is worth noting that this is the second month in a row in which overall revenues have fallen short. At this point, the signals are mixed."

In his May revision of the 2016-17 budget, Brown anticipated $152 million from the corporation tax. Instead, the state paid out more in refunds than it brought in, resulting in a net loss of $281.4 million.

By contrast, the personal income tax, the state General Fund's biggest revenue source, generated $3.88 billion, surpassing estimates by $273.2 million, or 7.6%. The retail sales and use tax fell short of May revision estimates, but not by much. Collections adding up to $3.47 billion were $64.7 million, or 1.8%, less than projected.

Overall, May revenues of $7.43 billion fell short of budget projections by 2%.

Compared to projections included in the state budget signed almost a year ago, May revenues were short by $560.9 million, or 7%. However, revenues for the first 11 months of the fiscal year are ahead. Overall collections of $102.57 billion are outstripping estimates by $1.70 billion, or 1.7%. While the corporation and sales taxes have lagged for the fiscal year to date, the personal income tax has surpassed expectations by $2.06 billion, or 3.1%.

Revenues look even healthier compared to actual collections in the prior fiscal year. With only one month remaining in the fiscal year, revenues are higher by $5.06 billion, or 5.2%.

The state ended May with unused borrowable resources of $28.13 billion, which was $3.86 billion more than expected in the May budget revision. Outstanding loans of $7.39 billion were $852.9 million less than projected. This loan balance consists of borrowing from the state's internal special funds.

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