California November Revenue Misses Estimate

chiang-john-9-2014.jpg

SAN FRANCISCO — California revenues for the month of November came in 2.3% below estimates at $6.4 billion, according to State Controller John Chiang.

Total revenues for the fiscal year to date — from July 1 to Nov. 30 — reached $34.3 billion, beating estimates by 3.1%.

"California is experiencing a solid post-Recession upswing, which has brightened the State's revenue picture," Chiang said with the release of his monthly report on Dec. 9. The report covers the state's cash balance, receipts, and disbursements.

"However, while the timing is unpredictable, history reminds us that booming economic times are always followed by painful lows," he said. "It is therefore critical for the State to take advantage of this window to smartly manage long-term fiscal risks such as deferred spending on critical infrastructure and unfunded retiree health care."

Total income tax collections for November came in at $259.5 million, or 7.3%, below estimates. Lower-than-expected paycheck withholding represented the primary shortfall, according to the state controller's office.

Chiang said this is surprising since the total national employment grew by 321,000 jobs in November alone.

"Since California accounts for more than 10% of all jobs, the state should also post a decent gain when California's job numbers are released in December," the report said. "Personal income taxes were up relative to last November by 6%, or $188 million. Part of November's shortfall could be due to timing."

The controller's office said retail sales taxes, which have generally been weak this year, may be a bigger concern. Those revenues fell short of estimates by $103.3 million, or 3.7%.

In contrast, it was a good month for corporate tax revenue collections, which came in at $163.8 million, or 205.3%, above estimates.

As of November, the state's general fund accumulated outstanding loans of $18.5 billion, which was down $2.7 billion from what the state expected to need by the end of November. This total was financed by $15.7 billion of borrowing from internal state funds and $2.8 billion of borrowing from banks and other outside investors.

The controller said California typically sees spending exceed revenues during the first several months of the fiscal year, but this year's gap has been significantly less than projected. Total receipts are more than $1.3 billion ahead of projections, while total disbursements are $1.3 billion shy of estimates.

"As a result, the difference, or the state's increase in temporary borrowing, is $2.7billion less than expected," according to the report.

For reprint and licensing requests for this article, click here.
California
MORE FROM BOND BUYER