The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September surged to positive 0.47 from a revised negative 0.25 reading in August, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) rose to 0.25 from a revised 0.16 in August, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In September 2013, the index was 0.26, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.01 in that month.
The August index was originally reported as negative 0.21, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as 0.07.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was somewhat above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, grew to 0.24 from a revised 0.18 the month before, first reported as 0.14. A year ago, the diffusion index was 0.08.
The production indicators added 0.30 to CFNAI in the month (compared to a subtraction of 0.20 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.22 in the month, after a 0.04 contribution in August, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.13 in the month, after subtracting 0.09 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.08 in the month, after a subtraction of 0.01 in August.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Oct. 21, with data for 50 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 58 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 27 made negative contributions. While 56 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 29 deteriorated from August to September.
