The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November surged to 0.73 from a revised 0.31 reading in October, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) gained to 0.48 from a revised 0.09 in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In November 2013, the index was 0.70, while the CFNAI-MA3 was 0.35 in that month.
The October index was
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3, its highest level since May 2010, indicates national economic growth was above its historical trend, and suggests modest inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, rose to 0.37 from a revised 0.18 the month before, first reported as 0.11. A year ago, the diffusion index was 0.43.
The production indicators added 0.64 to CFNAI in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.09 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.17 in the month, after a 0.22 contribution in October, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.10 in the month, after subtracting 0.11 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories added 0.02 in the month, after adding 0.11 in October.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Dec. 18, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 54 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 31 made negative contributions. While 50 indicators were better than the previous month, 6 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 35 deteriorated from October to November.
