WASHINGTON – Non-farm payrolls posted only a 151,000 gain in January, more than 30,000 below expectations, and the net revision for the prior two months was down 2,000.
Those are disappointing numbers compared to the 279,000 average gain in jobs in the fourth quarter of 2015, when mild weather might have pulled some hiring forward.
But the January unemployment rate edged down 0.1-point to 4.9% and average hourly earnings surged 12 cents or 0.5% for a 2.5% gain pace over the year. Hours also surged.
Private jobs posted a 158,000 increase, and most of the job losses/slowing were expected as they were in seasonal industries or areas that are seeing pricing problems. They included mining at a 7,000 decline (5,000 in extraction support), couriers down14,400, temporary help fell 25,200, private education services dropped 38,500, and government slid 7,000 (mainly in state and post office employees). Retail jobs posted a 57,700 rise (after an unusual 800 dip in December), healthcare grew 36,800, construction added 18,000, and finance rose 18,000. Manufacturing posted a 29,000 increase.
All the January data must be read through the lens of a large January seasonal adjustment factor for jobs. Unadjusted jobs posted -2.989 million during the month and the seasonal produced the gain.
The benchmark for jobs was a 206,000 decline or 0.1%. That is historically small and means that through March 2015 on average there were 17,000 fewer jobs created per month.
Population controls added 218,000 to the labor force in the household survey in December, 206,000 of whom were estimated to be employed. In January, after removing the population control effect, there was still a 125,000 drop in the number of unemployed -- so there was no real effect on the unemployment rate, which remains in a decline.
Also, the jobs data were collected prior to the snow storms in the Midwest and East, so there was minimal weather effect.
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