The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January dropped to negative 0.05 from an upwardly revised positive 0.18 in December, first reported as positive 0.14, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) dipped to negative 0.03 from an upwardly revised negative 0.02 in December, first reported as negative 0.07, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Thursday.
In January 2016, the index was positive 0.12, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.19 in that month.
The reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was near its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index, also a three-month moving average, slipped to negative 0.04 from a revised negative 0.03 reading the month before, first reported as negative 0.06. A year ago, the diffusion index was negative 0.14.
The production indicators subtracted 0.07 from CFNAI in the month (compared to an addition of 0.18 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators added 0.06 to the index in the month, after a 0.01 subtraction in December, the Fed said.
Personal consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.05 in the month, after subtracting 0.03 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.02 in the month after a 0.04 addition the month before.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by Feb. 17, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 36 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 49 made negative contributions. While 39 indicators were better than the previous month, 14 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 45 deteriorated from December to January and one was unchanged.
