WASHINGTON (MNI) - The latest U.S. trade data confirm the nasty erosion indicated in the preliminary goods report, and are a negative for Q3 real GDP growth.
The August trade balance was -$48.3 billion, up from -$41.8 billion in July and slightly worse than expected. A large widening in the gap was anticipated from the advance goods data presented on a Census basis. The balance on a BOP basis is the worst showing since March.
The difference from the preliminary report primarily stems from definitional changes in the treatment of nonmonetary gold and the incorporation of services information. The services surplus moved up only $0.1 billion in August, not enough to alter the story from goods, where a perfect storm worsened trade.
Imports of goods surged $2.5 billion, with cell phones alone up $2.1 billion as new I-phones came on line. In a slight positive, imports of petroleum, at $15.1 billion, were their lowest since September 2004, as lower prices and U.S.-based lifting combined to improve this number.
Exports were the bulk of the story, posting -$4 billion from broad drops as world trade retreated. Oil posted -$0.8 billion as prices fell, plastics posted -$244 million, and many other materials dipped. Autos posted -$499 million, jewelry -$274 million, and beans -$228 million.
The Commerce Department said exports were at their lowest levels since October 2012, and goods exports their lowest since June 2011.
Seasonally adjusted balances by country showed continuing problems with Asia: China posted -$32.9 billion after -$28.8 billion in July, Japan -$5.2 billion after -$5.4 billion, and OPEC +$1.04 billion after +$0.7 billion. The numbers seem to confirm that the phone imports originated in China.
This release included for the first time imports filed in the new Automated Commercial Environment system that are valued below filing exemption levels (low-value imports). This improvement increased the number of shipments filed, and its effect on the data was unclear, since the main import monthly flow was large-value items for a large firm.
The July-August trade gap stands about $1.8 billion wider on average so far from Q2, and this will cut Q3 GDP growth by more than 1/2 point.
A separate note profiling exporting companies in 2014 shows that about 301,923 companies were identified as accounting for $1.4 trillion in exports, with the number of firms down almost 1% from the 2013 final total. Of those, 25% were manufacturers and 33% wholesalers.
-Market News International
