NEW YORK – Gross domestic product growth will be below its historical average, rising 1.6% this year and 2.0%, while inflation, measured by the consumer price index, is seen dropping from 3.8% this year to 2.4% next year, according to a consensus economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Economic Outlook Symposium.
The unemployment rate is forecasted to average 9.1% in 2011 before edging down to a still quite high 8.8% by the end of next year.
Consumer spending should increase at a moderate pace next year, while a “solid” increase is forecast in business spending.
Housing starts are expected to rise slightly this year and next, while car and light truck sales are seen rising to 13.4 million units in 2012 from 12.6 million units this year. Oil prices are seen growing to $88.88 per barrel this quarter and to $92 per barrel by the end of next year.
Industrial production growth is seen at 3.2% this year and 2.3% next year. The one-year Treasury rate is anticipated to rise 10 basis points next year, while the ten-year Treasury rate is anticipated growing 51 basis points.
