Fed's Economic Projections Again Point to Tightening in 2015

2015 remains the year most members of the Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect monetary policy tightening, according to the Fed's latest summary of economic projections released Wednesday.

Twelve votes were cast for 2015 being the appropriate time to firm policy, with two votes cast for 2014 and three votes cast for 2016.

The range for the fed funds target at year end of 2015 includes three at 0.25% to one at 3.25%, with three seeing the rate at 0.50%, four at 0.75%, two at 1.00%, one at 1.25%, one at 1.50%, one at 2.00%%, and one at 2.75%. The range for the fed funds target at the end of 2016 remains one at 0.50% to one at 4.25%, with one at 1.00%, one at 1.25%, two at 1.50%, four at 1.75%, one at 2.00%, two at 2.50%, one each at 2.75%, 3.00%, 3.25%, and 4.00%.

Longer run, the target is seen between 3.50% (four participants) and 4.25% (two), with the majority (9) at 4.00%.

The quarterly projections for the long run GDP growth seen at 2.2% to 2.4%, unemployment between 5.2% and 5.8% and PCE inflation at 2.0%. The quarterly projections for the long run in September were similar.

GDP central tendency projections were raised to 2.2% to 2.3% for this year (from a 2.0% to 2.3% range in the earlier survey), mixed to 2.8% to 3.2% growth for 2014 (from 2.9% to 3.1% in the September projections), and narrowed for 2015 to 3.0% to 3.4% (compared to 3.0% to 3.5%). The projection for 2016 is 2.5% to 3.2%, compared to 2.5% to 3.3%.

Unemployment central tendency projections for 2013 to 2015 were modified slightly. In 2013, the rate is seen at 7.0% to 7.1%, off from 7.1% to 7.3% in the prior projections, 6.3% to 6.6% in 2014, off from 6.4% to 6.8%, and 5.8% to 6.1% in 2015, off from 5.9% to 6.2%. The projection for 2016 is 5.3% to 5.8%, lowered from 5.4% to 5.9%.

PCE inflation projections were tweaked to 0.9% to 1.0% for 2013 (1.1% to 1.2% in the last report) and 1.4% to 1.6% next year (from 1.3% to 1.8%), and 1.5% to 2.0% from 1.6% to 2.0% in 2015. Inflation remains projected at 1.7% to 2.0% for 2016.

Core PCE inflation projections slipped a tick 1.1% to 1.2% for 2013, tweaked to 1.4% to 1.6% next year (from 1.5% to 1.7%), and dropped to 1.6% to 2.0% from 1.7% to 2.0% in 2015. The projection for 2016 is 1.8% to 2.0%, off from 1.9% to 2.0%.

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