CHICAGO — The federal government's attempt to block bankrupt American Airlines' merger with US Airways Group Inc. could have a "marginally positive" impact on U.S. airports if it means the trend of airline consolidation is at its end, Fitch Ratings said in a report published Friday.
"If this move signals the end of the consolidation trend in the airline business, airports will generally benefit as more carriers (and competition) increase the routes and require more services," Fitch said.
Smaller regional airports stand to benefit the most if the trend ends.
"They are more vulnerable to airline service cutbacks after a merger of large carriers," Fitch said.
That's not the case for all regionals such as those like Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport that have significant exposure to route changes American could implement should it decide to scale back operations under a new restructuring plan.
Larger international gateway airports stand to benefit in the event the union falters as both airlines may separately need to enhance international services to contend with competitors.
"AMR is better placed to pursue this course given its larger presence at more favorable international gateway airport," Fitch wrote.
The U.S. Justice Department and attorneys general from six states and the District of Columbia filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against the proposed merger this week citing concerns the union would undercut competition and hurt consumers. It's the government's first challenge to a series of airline mergers that have taken place in recent years.
Fitch also addresses in its report the DOJ focus in its lawsuit on Reagan National Airport and the expected shift in US Airways' number of landing and takeoff slots post-merger. It currently holds 55% but that figure would rise to 69% post-merger.
The report's authors, Saavan Gatfield and Emari Wydick, said if the merger goes through, the carriers may be forced to divest of some slots there in a concession to the government. If so, demand exists for other airlines to pick up the slots which could be benefit the airport as some US Airways slots currently are underused.
