Initial Jobless Claims Rise 7,000 to 343,000 in Week Ended July 20

WASHINGTON — Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits jumped a bit more than expected in the July 20 week, rising by 7,000 to 343,000 to more than reverse the previous week's slide, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Expectations for this week's report was for a claims level of 340,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previously reported 334,000 level in July 13 employment survey week.

Claims in that week were revised up to a 336,000 level. Still, claims were down 22,000 from the July 6 holiday week, with unadjusted state data for that week showing fewer manufacturing layoffs in Michigan (-11,969 vs. +17,700 in the July 6 week).

A Labor Department analyst said no states were estimated in the current week, but noted that July usually brings with it volatility in the claims data. That "still holds true" in Thursday's report, he said.

The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average fell 1,250 to 345,250 in the July 20 week.

While seasonal factors expect unadjusted claims to rise in the first two weeks of July due to auto retooling shutdowns, these shutdowns typically last through mid-month, so seasonal factors would look for a decline in unadjusted initial claims in the July 20.

The analyst said that seasonal adjustment factors had expected a 19% drop in unadjusted claims, or just over 79,000, in the July 20 week. Instead, unadjusted claims fell 17%, or 71,879, to 338,140. That level is just below the 340,780 level reported in the comparable week a year ago.

The state data released for the July 13 survey week indicated unadjusted initial claims increased in 38 states and declined in 15 states, with no states unchanged. The District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands are included in this data.

The level of continuing claims came in at 2.997 million after seasonal adjustment in the July 13 survey week, a decline of 119,000 from the previous week.

This is up 10,000 vs. the June 15 employment survey week (2.987 million).

The level of unadjusted continuing claims fell 98,920 to 3,047,802 in the July 13 week, below the 3,336,728 level in the comparable week a year ago.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment dipped to 2.3% in the July 13 week from 2.4% in the previous week, and below the seasonally adjusted 2.6% rate in the comparable week a year earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits claims fell 24,489 to 1,612,242 in the July 6 week.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 4,840,609 persons claimed unemployment benefits in the July 6 week, an increase of 317,403 from the previous week, but still well below the 6,034,225 persons in the comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally adjusted, and include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new veterans claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state additional benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

Market News International is a real-time global news service for fixed-income and foreign exchange market professionals. See www.marketnews.com.

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