Fed's Economic Projections Again Show Majority Expect Tightening in 2015

2015 remains the year most members of the Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect monetary policy tightening, with GDP growth substantially stronger and unemployment as low as 5.8%, according to the Fed's latest summary of economic projections released Wednesday.

Fourteen votes were cast for 2015 being the appropriate time to firm policy, with three members selecting 2014, and one each 2013 and 2016.

The range for the fed funds target at year end of 2015 ranges from one at 0.25% to three at 3%, with two seeing the rate at 0.5%, three at 0.75%, four at 1%, two at 1.25%, three at 1.50% and one at 2%.

Longer run, the target is seen between 3.25% (one participant) and 4.5% (three), with the majority (nine) at 4%.

The quarterly projections for the long run were unchanged from the March numbers, with GDP growth seen at 2.3% to 2.5%, unemployment between 5.2% and 6.0% and PCE inflation at 2.0%.

GDP central tendency projections were lowered to 2.3% to 2.6% for this year (from a 2.3% to 2.8% range in the earlier survey), raised to 3.0% to 3.5% growth for 2014 (from 2.9% to 3.4% in the March projections), and slightly lower for 2015 2.9% to 3.6% (compared to 2.9% to 3.7%).

Unemployment central tendency projections were cut for all three years. In 2013, the rate is seen at 7.2% to 7.3%, off from 7.3% to 7.5% in the prior projections, 6.5% to 6.8% in 2014, off from 6.7% to 7.0%, and 5.8% to 6.2% in 2015, down from 6.0% to 6.5%.

Inflation projections were tweaked to 0.8% to 1.2% for 2013 (1.3% to 1.7% in the last report), 1.4% to 2.0% next year (1.5% to 2.0%), and 1.6% to 2.0% in 2015 (1.7% to 2.0%).

Core inflation projections were cut to 1.2% to 1.3% for 2013 (1.5% to 1.6% in the last report), 1.5% to 1.8% next year (1.7% to 2.0%), and 1.7% to 2.0% in 2015 (1.8% to 2.1%).

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