The economy is not looking as strong as it did three months ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s survey of professional forecasters, which was released Friday.
The projection for real gross domestic product growth in the second quarter was dropped to 3.2% from 3.5%, but for the next two quarters the estimates were raised to 3.4% and 3.5% from 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively.
For the first quarter of 2012, the estimate was cut to 2.9% from 3.1%. Forecasters estimate second-quarter 2012 GDP growth will be 2.5%.
But the annual numbers were all lowered. GDP growth for 2011 was cut to 2.7% from 3.2%, 2012 fell to 3.0% from 3.1%, 2013 was trimmed to 2.8% from 3.0%, and 2014 is now estimated at 3.3%, down from 3.4% in the previous survey.
The forecasters also see unemployment falling quicker, lowering their projections by three percentage points per quarter to 8.9%, 8.7%, 8.5%, and 8.4% for the next four quarters.
Meanwhile, the annual rate for this year was lowered to 8.7% from 9.1%, next year’s forecast fell to 8.1% from 8.5%, 2013 fell to 7.5% from 7.8%, and 2014 fell to 7.0% from 7.3%.
“The forecasters predict higher inflation, both in the short run and over the long run, for the survey’s four measures of inflation,” according to the survey.
Forecaster also raised their projections for headline consumer-price index inflation over the next 10 years to an average 2.4% annual rate from 2.3% in the last survey.
