Livingston Survey Sees GDP Up, Slack Labor Mart

Real gross domestic product projections increased, with forecasters seeing rates of up to 3.1% growth in real gross domestic product in the last half of 2009, although predictions for the jobless rate now hover above the 10% mark, according to the latest Livingston Survey, released yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Real GDP, after rising a projected 3.1% in the last half of this year, will go up 2.6% at an annual rate in the first half of 2010 and 3.0% in the last half of next year, according to the survey. In the previous survey, released in June, the projections for GDP growth were 1.1% for the last half of 2009, and 2.6% for the first half of 2010.

The 39 participants in the survey see the unemployment rate at 10.3% in both December 2009 and June 2010, compared to predicted rates of 9.9% and 9.8%, respectively, in the prior survey. The jobless rate is then expected to dip to 9.9% by December 2010.

Inflation is also predicted to be higher than previously expected. As measured by the consumer price index, inflation is seen declining at a 0.3% annual rate for 2009, compared to the previous estimate of a 0.7% drop. It is then expected to average 2.2% in 2010, up from the 1.7% previous estimate.

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