Initial claims for state unemployment showed a surprising 94,000 drop during Christmas week to 492,000, far below expectations, in a set of numbers a Labor Department analyst said he at first thought was “unbelievable.”
Forecasts had centered on a drop of just 7,000 to 579,000 in a week the analyst said generally shows the second highest jump in unadjusted claims of the year. The week after Thanksgiving is usually the top gainer. The last time initial claims had a decline as large as 94,000 was in the Aug. 1, 1992, week.
Continuing claims were at 4.506 million in the Dec. 20 week, up 140,000 to the highest since Dec. 4, 1982.
The Labor Department analyst said he went back to the states to confirm the number after initially thinking the results were “unbelievable,” and they did come back with solid numbers. Only two states and the Virgin Islands were estimated. So the analyst said he concluded that “seasonal factor volatility” is at work, and said it would not be surprising to see one or two more weeks “skewed” as well.
Some auto industry layoffs, he said, may not be occurring in the weeks expected by the seasonal factors. State administrative staffs, normally working six-day weeks to cope with the heavy volume, may have been given one or more days off during the holiday week. For this New Year’s week, he said, generally there is not as much travel disruption but again, it would not be surprising to see another skewed number.
There was no revision to the Dec. 20 week’s originally reported 586,000 level of initial claims.
The four-week moving average for initial claims in the Dec. 20 week decreased 5,750 to 552,250.
The four-week moving average for continuing claims in the Dec. 20 week was 4.4225 million, highest since Dec. 11, 1982.
In the Dec. 20 week, the seasonally adjusted insured employment rate was 3.4%, last seen Nov. 19, 1983.
The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is roughly half that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.
—Market News International
