WASHINGTON — Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment benefits rose by 11,000 to 234,000 in the May 19 week, well above the 220,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, while the four-week moving average posted its first gain in five weeks, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed.
Even with the gains in the previous two weeks, claims have only returned to the trim levels seen through much of the last year and suggest that the decades-low levels seen of the last month were unsustainable.
The four-week moving average for initial claims, which tends to be a better measure of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 6,250 to 219,750 in the May 19 week after four straight declines, but was still near the 48-year low posted in the previous week.
If the number of headline claims does not change next week and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week average will rise by an additional 5,750 as the 211,000 level in the April 28 week rolls out of the calculation, but the average will still be below its year ago level.
Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 0.8%, or 1,560, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 11,654 (6.0%) to 206,868, likely payback from low levels seen over the last month. The current week's level was slightly below the 210,544 level in the comparable week a year ago.
Maine was the only state where claims were estimated, as Colorado was able to produce actual data. The claims-taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have still not returned to normal.
The level of continuing claims rose by 29,000 to 1.741 million in the May 12 employment survey week, down 93,000 from the level in the 1.834 million level in the April 14 employment survey week, a very strong positive sign for May payrolls.
Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 7,800 to 1.603 million, well below the 1.784 million level seen in the comparable week last year.
The four-week average for continuing claims, a more reliable measure when the continuing claims are rapidly moving week-to-week, fell by 23,250 to 1.752 million, hitting its lowest point since the Dec. 15, 1973 week.
The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in the May 12 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier and an indication of how low the level of insured unemployment stands.
The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.
